Publikationen der Gruppe Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen

  • Feldmann, H., Pinto, J., Laube, N., Uhlig, M., Moemken, J., Pasternack, A., Früh, B., Pohlmann, H. & Kottmeier, C. (2019). Skill and added value of the MiKlip regional decadal prediction system for temperature over Europe. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 71, 1-19. doi:10.1080/16000870.2019.1618678 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Ghosh, R., Müller, W., Eichhorn, A., Baehr, J. & Bader, J. (2019). Atmospheric pathway between Atlantic multidecadal variability and European summer temperature in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. Climate Dynamics, 53, 209-224. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4578-4 [ Fulltext]
  • Kushnir, Y., Scaife, A., Arritt, R., Balsamo, G., Boer, G., Doblas-Reyes, F., Hawkins, E., Kimoto, M., Kolli, R., Kumar, A., Matei, D., Matthes, K., Müller, W., O'Kane, T., Perlwitz, J., Power, S., Raphael, M., Shimpo, A., Smith, D., Tuma, M. & Wu, B. (2019). Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate. Nature Climate Change, 9, 94-101. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7
  • Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. & Landschützer, P. (2019). Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink. Science Advances, 5: eaav6471. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aav6471 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Maher, N., Milinski, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Botzet, M., Kornblueh, L., Takano, Y., Kröger, J., Ghosh, R., Hedemann, C., Li, C., Li, H., Manzini, E., Notz, D., Putrasahan, D., Boysen, L., Claussen, M., Ilyina, T., Olonscheck, D., Raddatz, T., Stevens, B. & Marotzke, J. (in press). The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble - Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, available online.. doi:10.1029/2019MS001639
  • Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R., Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S., Popke, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D., Haak, H., Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T., Jimenez Cuesta de la Otero, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S., Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B., Müller, W., Nabel, J., Nam, C., Notz, D., Nyawira, S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp, M., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C., Rohrschneider, T., Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K., Stein, L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., von Storch, J., Tian, F., Voigt, A., de Vrese, P., Wieners, K.-H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Roeckner, E. & Winkler, A. (2019). Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and its response to increasing CO2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 998-1038. doi:10.1029/2018MS001400 [ Fulltext]
  • Neddermann, N.-C., Müller, W., Dobrynin, M., Düsterhus, A. & Baehr, J. (in press). Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed. Climate Dynamics, early view, online available. doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04678-4
  • Paeth, H., Li, J., Pollinger, F., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Feldmann, H. & Panitz, H.-J. (2019). An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 52, 1343-1357. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4195-2
  • Paxian, A., Ziese, M., Kreienkamp, F., Pankatz, K., Brand, S., Pasternack, A., Pohlmann, H., Modali, K. & Früh, B. (2019). User-oriented global predictions of the GPCC drought index for the next decade. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 28, 3-21. doi: 10.1127/metz/2018/0912 [ Fulltext]
  • Polkova, I., Brune, S., Kadow, C., Romanova, V., Gollan, G., Baehr, J., Glowienka-Hense, R., Greatbatch, R., Hense, A., Illing, S., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Müller, W., Pankatz, K. & Stammer, D. (2019). Initialization and ensemble generation for decadal climate predictions: A comparison of different methods. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 11, 149-172. doi:10.1029/2018MS001439 [ Fulltext]
  • Reyers, M., Feldmann, H., Mieruch, S., Pinto, J., Uhlig, M., Ahrens, B., Früh, B., Modali, K., Laube, N., Mömken, J., Müller, W., Schädler, G. & Kottmeier, C. (2019). Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 171-187. doi:10.5194/esd-10-171-2019 [ Fulltext]
  • Scaife, A., Ferranti, L., Alves, O., Athanasiadis, P., Baehr, J., Dequé, M., Dippe, T., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D., Gudgel, R., Greatbatch, R., Hermanson, L., Imada, Y., Jain, S., Kumar, A., MacLachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W., Ren, H.-L., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., Vecchi, G. & Yang, X. (2019). Tropical rainfall predictions from multiple seasonal forecast systems. International Journal of Climatology, 39, 974-988. doi:10.1002/joc.5855 [ Fulltext]
  • Schuster, M., Grieger, J., Richling, A., Schartner, T., Illing, S., Kadow, C., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Pfahl, S. & Ulbrich, U. (submitted). Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the northern hemisphere extra-tropical winter circulation through increased model resolution. In review for Earth System Dynamics. doi: 10.5194/esd-2019-18. doi:10.5194/esd-2019-18
  • Wu, B., Zhou, T., Li, C., Müller, W. & Lin, J. (in press). Improved decadal prediction of Northern-Hemisphere summer land temperature. Climate Dynamics, ahead of print, available online.. doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04658-8
  • Borchert, L., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2018). Atlantic Ocean heat transport influences interannual-to-decadal surface temperature predictability in the North Atlantic region. Journal of Climate, 31, 6763-6782. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0734.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Brune, S., Düsterhus, A., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2018). Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts. Climate Dynamics, 51, 1947-1970. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3991-4
  • Bunzel, F., Müller, W., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Stacke, T. & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346-353. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Butchart, N., Anstey, J., Hamilton, K., Osprey, S., McLandress, C., Bushell, A., Kawatani, Y., Kim, Y.-H., Lott, F., Scinocca, J., Stockdale, T., Andrews, M., Bellprat, O., Braesicke, P., Cagnazzo, C., Chen, C.-C., Chun, H.-Y., Dobrynin, M., Garcia, R., Garcia-Serrano, J., Gray, L., Holt, L., Kerzenmacher, T., Naoe, H., Pohlmann, H., Richter, J., Scaife, A., Schenzinger, V., Serva, F., Versick, S., Watanabe, S., Yoshida, K. & Yukimoto, S. (2018). Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1009-1032. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1009-2018 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Dobrynin, M., Domeisen, D., Müller, W., Bell, L., Brune, S., Bunzel, F., Fröhlich, C., Pohlmann, H. & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 3605-3614. doi:10.1002/2018GL077209 [ Fulltext]
  • Ghosh, R., Chakraborty, A. & Nanjundiah, R. (2018). Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131, 319-333 . doi:10.1007/s00704-016-1970-z [ Fulltext]
  • Han, W., Stammer, D., Meehl, G., Hu, A., Sienz, F. & Zhang, L. (2018). Multi-decadal trend and decadal variability of the regional sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: Roles of climate modes and external forcing. Climate, 6: 51. doi:10.3390/cli6020051 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Illing, S., Kadow, C., Pohlmann, H. & Timmreck, C. (2018). Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions. Earth System Dynamics, 9, 701-715. doi:10.5194/esd-9-701-2018 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F., Marotzke, J., Baehr, J., Köhl, A., Modali, K., Polkova, I., Stammer, D., Vamborg, F. & Müller, W. (2018). Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI Earth System Model: An initial shock in the North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2593-2608. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Lohmann, K., Matei, D., Bersch, M., Jungclaus, J., Pohlmann, H., Kröger, J., Modali, K. & Müller, W. (submitted). Decadal-scale predictive skill of North Talntic upper-ocean salt content and its attribution to the initialization of the North Atlantic Ocean oscillation.
  • Müller, W., Jungclaus, J., Mauritsen, T., Baehr, J., Bittner, M., Budich, R., Bunzel, F., Esch, M., Ghosh, R., Haak, H., Ilyina, T., Kleinen, T., Kornblueh, L., Li, H., Modali, K., Notz, D., Pohlmann, H., Roeckner, E., Stemmler, I., Tian, F. & Marotzke, J. (2018). A higher-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM 1.2 - HR). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10, 1383 -1413. doi:10.1029/2017MS001217 [ Fulltext]
  • Pasternack, A., Bhend, J., Liniger, M., Rust, H., Müller, W. & Ulbrich, U. (2018). Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0). Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 351-368. doi:10.5194/gmd-11-351-2018 [ Fulltext]
  • Smith, D., Scaife, A., Hawkins, E., Bilbao, R., Boer, G., Caian, M., Caron, L.-P., Danabasoglu, G., Delworth, T., Doblas-Reyes, F., Doescher, R., Dunstone, N., Eade, R., Hermanson, L., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Koenigk, T., Kushnir, Y., Matei, D., Meehl, G., Menegoz, M., Merryfield, W., Mochizuki, T., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Power, S., Rixen, M., Tuma, M., Wyser, K., Yang, X. & Yeager, S. (2018). Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 11895-11903. doi:10.1029/2018GL079362 [ Fulltext]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Müller, W. & Marotzke, J. (2018). Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1,5°C and 2°C of global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13: 064026. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58 [ Fulltext]
  • Zhang, L., Han, W. & Sienz, F. (2018). Unraveling causes for the changing behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the past few decades. Journal of Climate, 31, 2377-2388. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0445.1 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Ardilouze, C., Batté, L., Bunzel, F., Decremer, D., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., Douville, H., Fereday, D., Guemas, V., MacLachlan, C., Müller, W. & Prodhomme, C. (2017). Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability. Climate Dynamics, 49, 3959-3974. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7
  • Fischer, M., Domeisen, D., Müller, W. & Baehr, J. (2017). Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 129-146. doi:10.5194/esd-8-129-2017 [ Fulltext]
  • Ghosh, R., Müller, W., Baehr, J. & Bader, J. (2017). Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: a linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Climate Dynamics, 38, 3547-3563. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3283-4 [ Fulltext]
  • Müller, V., Pohlmann, H., Düsterhus, A., Matei, D., Marotzke, J., Müller, W., Zeller, M. & Baehr, J. (2017). Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5° N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2975-2990. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3482-z
  • Pohlmann, H., Kröger, J., Greatbatch, R. & Müller, W. (2017). Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific. Climate Dynamics, 49, 2685-2693. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3486-8 [ Fulltext]
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Li, C., Thorne, P. & Marotzke, J. (2017). Internal variability in simulated and observed tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 5709-5719 . doi:10.1002/2017gl073798 [ Fulltext]
  • Tompkins, A., Zárate, O., Inés, M., Saurral, R., Vera, C., Saulo, C., Merryfield, W., Sigmond, M., Lee, W.-S., Baehr, J., Braun, A., Butler, A., Déqué, M., Doblas-Reyes, F., Gordon, M., Scaife, A., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Ose, T., Kirtman, B., Kumar, A., Müller, W., Pirani, A., Stockdale, T., Rixen, M. & Yasuda, T. (2017). The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 2293-2301. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0209.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Zanchettin, D., Gaetan, C., Arisido, M., Modali, K., Toniazzo, T., Keenlyside, N. & Rubino, A. (2017). Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports, 7: 12862. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13144-2 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Bittner, M., Schmidt, H., Timmreck, C. & Sienz, F. (2016). Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 9324-9332. doi:10.1002/2016GL070587 [ Fulltext]
  • Boer, G., Smith, D., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., Kirtman, B., Kushnir, Y., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G., Msadek, R., Müller, W., Taylor, K., Zwiers, F., Rixen, M., Ruprich-Robert, Y. & Eade, R. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 3751-3777. doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3751-2016 [ Fulltext]
  • Bunzel, F., Notz, D., Baehr, J., Müller, W. & Fröhlich, K. (2016). Seasonal climate forecasts significantly affected by observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 852-859. doi:10.1002/2015GL066928 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Butler, A., Arribas, A., Athanassiadou, M., Baehr, J., Calvo, N., Charlton-Perez, A., Déqué, M., Domeisen, D., Fröhlich, K., Hendon, H., Imada, Y., Ishii, M., Iza, M., Karpechko, A., Kumar, A., Maclachlan, C., Merryfield, W., Müller, W., O'Neill, A., Scaife, A., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Stockdale, T. & Yasuda, T. (2016). The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 142, 1413-1427. doi:10.1002/qj.2743
  • Kadow, C., Illing, S., Kunst, O., Rust, H., Pohlmann, H., Müller, W. & Cubasch, U. (2016). Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 631-643. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0639 [ Fulltext]
  • Kruschke, T., Rust, H., Kadow, C., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Leckebusch, G. & Ulbrich, U. (2016). Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 721-738. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0641 [ Fulltext]
  • Li, H., Ilyina, T., Müller, W. & Sienz, F. (2016). Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake. Nature Communications, 7: 11076. doi:10.1038/ncomms11076 [ Fulltext] [ Fulltext]
  • Marotzke, J., Müller, W., Vamborg, F., Becker, P., Cubasch, U., Feldmann, H., Kaspar, F., Kottmeier, C., Marini, C., Polkova, I., Prömmel, K., Rust, H., Stammer, D., Ulbrich, U., Kadow, C., Köhl, A., Kröger, J., Kruschke, T., Pinto, J., Pohlmann, H., Reyers, M., Schröder, M., Sienz, F., Timmreck, C. & Ziese, M. (2016). MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97, 2379-2394. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Mohino, E., Keenlyside, N. & Pohlmann, H. (2016). Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from?. Climate Dynamics, 47, 3593-3612. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9
  • Pattantyús-Ábrahám, M., Kadow, C., Illing, S., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H. & Steinbrecht, W. (2016). Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European radiosonde data. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 709-720. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0803 [ Fulltext]
  • Sienz, F., Müller, W. & Pohlmann, H. (2016). Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 25, 645-655. doi:10.1127/metz/2016/0670 [ Fulltext]
  • Timmreck, C., Pohlmann, H., Illing, S. & Kadow, C. (2016). The impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosol on decadal-scale climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 834-842. doi:10.1002/2015GL067431 [ Fulltext]
  • Baehr, J., Fröhlich , K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S. & Müller, W. (2015). The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7
  • Bellucci, A., Haarsma, R., Gualdi, S., Athanasiadis, P., Caian, M., Cassou, C., Fernandez, E., Germe, A., Jungclaus, J., Kröger, J., Matei, D., Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Salas y Melia, D., Sanchez, E., Smith, D., Terray, L., Wyser, K. & Yang, S. (2015). An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2787-2806. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y
  • Böttinger, M., Pohlmann, H., Röber, N., Meier-Fleischer, K. & Spickermann, D. (2015). Visualization of 2D uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. In EuroVis Workshop on Visualization in Environmental Sciences (EnvirVis 2015) doi:10.2312/envirvis.20151083
  • Corti, S., Palmer, T., Balmaseda, M., Weisheimer, A., Drijfhout, S., Dunstone, N., Hazeleger, W., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., von Storch, J. & Wouters, B. (2015). Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment. Journal of Climate, 28, 4454-4470. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Domeisen, D., Butler, A., Fröhlich, K., Bittner, M., Mueller, W. & Baehr, J. (2015). Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system. Journal of Climate, 28, 256-271. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Kirtman, B., Branstator, G., Danabasoglu, G., Hawkins, E., Kumar, A., Rosati, T., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Carson, C., Corti, S., Karspeck, A., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Matei, D., Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Schneider, E., Tebaldi, C., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G., Vecchi, G. & Yeager, S. (2014). Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95, 243-267. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F. & Smith , D. (2014). Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 2100-2107. doi:10.1002/2014GL059259 [ Fulltext]
  • Saeed, S., Van Lipzig, N., Mueller, W., Saeed, F. & Zanchettin, D. (2014). Influence of the circumglobal wave-train on European summer precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 43, 503-515. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1871-0
  • Scaife, A., Athanassiadou, M., Andrews, M., Arribas, A., Baldwin, M., Dunstone, N., Knight, J., MacLachlan, C., Manzini, E., Müller, W., Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Stockdale, T. & Williams, A. (2014). Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 1752-1758. doi:10.1002/2013GL059160 [ Fulltext]
  • Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Eade , R., Fereday, D., Murphy, J., Pohlmann, H. & Scaife, A. (2014). Comments on "Multiyear predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: promise and limitations". Journal of Climate, 27, 487-489. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00220.1 [ Fulltext]
  • Zanchettin, D., Bothe, O., Mueller, W., Bader, J. & Jungclaus, J. (2014). Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Climate Dynamics, 42, 381-399. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0
  • Giorgetta, M., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C., Legutke, S., Bader, J., Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J. & Stevens, B. (2013). Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 572-597. doi:10.1002/jame.20038 [ Fulltext]
  • Hazeleger, W., Wouters, B., van Oldenborgh, G., Corti, S., Smith, D., Dunstone, N., Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H. & von Storch, J.-S. (2013). Predicting multi-year North Atlantic ocean variability. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 118, 1087-1098. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20117 [ Fulltext]
  • Menary, M., Roberts, C., Palmer, M., Halloran, P., Jackson, L., Wood, R., Mueller, W., Matei, D. & Lee, S.-K. (2013). Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 118, 2087-2096. doi:10.1002/jgrc.20178
  • Pohlmann, H., Mueller, W., Kulkarni, K., Kameswarrao, M., Matei, D., Vamborg, F., Kadow, C., Illing, S. & Marotzke, J. (2013). Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 5798-5802. doi:10.1002/2013GL058051 [ Fulltext]
  • Pohlmann, H., Smith, D., Balmaseda, M., Keenlyside, N., Masina, S., Matei, D., Müller, W. & Rogel, P. (2013). Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Climate Dynamics, 41, 775-785. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
  • Smith, D., Eade, R. & Pohlmann, H. (2013). A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, 41, 3325-3338. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2
  • Smith, D., Scaife, A., Boer, G., Caian, M., Dobles-Reyes, J., Guemas, V., Hawkins, E., Hazeleger, W., Hermansson, L., Ho, C., Ishii, M., Kharin, V., Kimoto, M., Kirtman, B., Lean, J., Matei, D., Merryfield, W., Mueller, W., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, A., Wouters, B. & Wyser, K. (2013). Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2875-2888. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0
  • Kröger, J., Müller, W. & von Storch, J. (2012). Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, 39, 795-810. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1310-7
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