MPI-M scientists support publication of Global Carbon Budget 2017

Today, the annual update of the Global Carbon Budget, and in total its 12th edition since its start in 2006, was released by the Global Carbon Project. As in previous years, the carbon budget analysis was supported by researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M). The wide expertise of the Institute is reflected in the variety of contributions this year, including the coordination and analysis of land-use change emission estimates (Julia Pongratz, department The Land in the Earth System), an estimate of the land-use change emissions from the bookkeeping model BLUE and of the terrestrial CO2 sink from JSBACH, the land surface model of the MPI-ESM (Julia Nabel, department The Land in the Earth System), an estimate of the ocean CO2 sink from the MPIOM-HAMOCC ocean biogeochemistry model (Tatiana Ilyina, department The Ocean in the Earth System) and an estimate of the ocean CO2 sink based on marine CO2 measurements (Peter Landschützer, department The Ocean in the Earth System).

The Global Carbon Project is an international research project within the Future Earth research initiative on global sustainability. It aims to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. Among others, main findings this year include:

 

  • In 2017, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry are projected to grow by 2.0% (+0.8 to +3.0%). This follows three years of nearly no growth (2014-2016). The world has not reached peak emissions yet.

  • Despite growth in 2017, global emissions are unlikely to return to the persistent high growth rates seen during the 2000s of over 3% per year in the long term. It is more likely that emissions will plateau or have slight positive growth, broadly in line with national emission pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement.

  • With global CO2 emission from human activities (fossil fuels, industry, and land-use change) estimated at ~41 Gt CO2 by end of this year, equalling the record high of 2015, time is running out on our ability to keep global average temperature increases below 2°C, let alone 1.5°C.

  • The projected increase of CO2 in the atmosphere for 2017 of around 19 GtCO2 is lower than its record high of 2015 and 2016 because of the end of the El Niño event. Nevertheless the 2017 accumulation is above the past decadal average due to the rising CO2 emissions. The combined land and ocean carbon sinks will absorb around 22 GtCO2 in 2017.


Global Carbon Project 2017; Data: CDIAC/NOAA-ESRL/GCP

Figure: Global Carbon Project 2017; Data: CDIAC/NOAA-ESRL/GCP

Publication:
Le Quéré et al. (2017) Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth System Science Data Discussions.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123

Further information:
Global Carbon Project 
Homepage Future Earth research initiative

Contact:

Dr Julia Pongratz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 255
Email: julia.pongratz@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr Julia Nabel
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 260
Email: julia.nabel@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr Tatiana Ilyina
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 164
Email: tatiana.ilyina@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr Peter Landschützer
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 145
Email: peter.landschuetzer@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de