MiKlip publishes the decadal climate forecasts for 2018-2027 including the annual forecast for 2018

The MiKlip project, led by Prof Jochem Marotzke and coordinated by Dr Sebastian Hettrich at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, has made its decadal climate forecasts for 2018-2027 available online this month.

Decadal climate predictions cover timescales of several years up to a decade. They close the gap between short-term weather predictions, seasonal climate predictions, and long-term climate projections. The MiKlip project, funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF), has as its main aim to develop an operational decadal climate prediction system to be hosted and run by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD).

Our MiKlip decadal forecast website aims to publish the results of these decadal climate predictions and to understandably explain them via an interactive interface to the public.

This time, the MiKlip website includes an annual forecast for the year 2018. The global mean surface air temperature for 2018 is predicted to be higher by 0.55 °C than observed in the reference period 1981-2010 and thereby 0.1 °C warmer than 2017, with hot spots of 1.2 °C in Eastern Europe and the areas north of the North Polar Circle. A further innovation of the website comprises forecasts based on a dynamical regional model for Europe. These estimate a mean warming of 0.49 °C compared to the reference period 1981-2010, with warmer areas from eastern France to the western Balkan countries, in central Italy, and in Finland.

The website also presents the forecasts for four-year averages in surface air temperature for the entire globe, Europe, and the North Atlantic. The forecasts show increased global mean surface temperatures compared to the reference period 1981-2010, and a warming of +0.57 °C will be reached for the mean over the period 2018-2021. On regional scales there is likewise a warming trend, though its magnitude varies. For Europe, the warming reaches values greater than 1.6 °C at the end of the forecast period in large areas.

The website allows visitors to explore two different types of forecasts, displayed as time series and maps. The website also provides an evaluation of the skill of the MiKlip system, that is, how well retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) have captured observations in the past. The forecast skill of the MiKlip system is compared to the forecast skill of two standard reference forecasts (climatology and climate projections). Website visitors are encouraged to leave their feedback.

Direct link to the MiKlip decadal forecasts for 2018-2027:
https://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-climate-prediction-system/decadal-forecast-for-2018-2027/

 

Further information:
Those wishing to find out more about decadal climate predictions and the science behind them are invited to visit the pages on "overview on decadal climate prediction"  and the pages about specific MiKlip research work packages.


Contact:

Prof Dr Jochem Marotzke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 311 (Assistant Kornelia Müller)
Email: jochem.marotzke@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr Sebastian Hettrich
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Phone: +49 40 41173 310
Email: sebastian.hettrich@we dont want spammpimet.mpg.de

Dr Wolfgang Müller
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Bernhard-Nocht-Straße 76
20359 Hamburg
Phone: +49 69 8062 6045
Email: wolfgang.mueller@we dont want spamdwd.de