Phone: ++49 - 40 - 41173 370

          Fax :    ++49 - 40 - 41173 298


          Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology

          Bundesstrasse 53

          20146 Hamburg


          Ocean in the Earth System

Research Group:

         Decadal Climate Prediction (MiKlip)



Current Projects


         Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen (Decadal Climate Predictions, BMBF-funded)


         Seasonal to Decadal Climate Prediction for the Improvement of European Climate Services (EU-FP7)


         Decadal Climate Prediction Project (WCRP)

WCRP Grand Challenge:

         Near-term Climate Prediction

Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S):

         Seasonal Climate Forecasts





  • Scaife, A. et al., 2018: Tropical Rainfall Predictions from Multiple Seasonal Forecast Systems, International Journal of Climatology
  • Ghosh, R., W. A. Müller, A. Eichhorn, J. Baehr, and J. Bader, 2018: Atmospheric pathway between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European summer temperature in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. Clim. Dyn.
  • Reyers M. et al., 2017: Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency. ESD.
  • Borchert, L. , W. A. Müller and J. Baehr, 2017: The Influence of the Strength of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport on Interannual Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic. JClim.
  • Müller, W. A., J. H. Jungclaus, T. Mauritzen, J. Baehr, M. Bittner, R. Budich, F. Bunzel, M. Esch, R. Ghosh,  H. Haak, T. Ilyina, T. Kleine, L. Kornblueh, H. Li, K. Modali, H. Pohlmann, E. Roeckner, I. Stemmler, F. Tian, J. Marotzke, 2017: A high-resolution version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR). JAMES
  • Paeth, H., J. Li, F. Pollinger, W. A. Müller, H. Feldmann and H.-J. Panitz, 2017: An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions. Clim. Dyn.
  • Brune, S.; A. Düsterhus; H. Pohlmann; W. A. Müller; and J. Baehr, 2017: Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts, Clim. Dyn.


  • Dobrynin, M., D. I.V. Domeisen, W. A. Müller, L. Bell, S. Brune, F. Bunzel, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, J. Baehr, 2018: Improved teleconnection-based dynamical seasonal predictions of boreal winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 45.
  • Suarez-Gutierrez, L., C. Li, W. A. Mueller, and J. Marotzke, 2018: Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5ºC and 2ºC of global warming. Europ. Res. Let. ERL-104665
  • Pasternack, A., J. Bhend, M. A. Liniger, H. W. Rust, W. A. Müller, and U. Ulbrich, 2018: Parametric Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration (Deforest 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 351-368.


  • Bunzel, F., W. A. Müller, T. Stacke, S. Hagemann, M. Dobrynin, J. Baehr, K. Fröhlich, H. Pohlmann, 2017: Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophys. Res. Lett. 10.1002/2017GL076204
  • Kröger, J., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, J. Marotzke, J. Baehr, A. Köhl, K. Modali, I. Polkova, D. Stammer, F. Vamborg, W. A. Müller, 2017: Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI Earth System Model: An initial shock in the North Atlantic. Clim. Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1
  • Thompkins, A.,  M. I. O. de Zárate, R. I. Saurral, C. Vera, C., W. J. Merryfield, M. Sigmond, W.-S. Lee, O. Alves, F. Tseitkin, J. Baehr, A. Braun, M. Déqué, A. Butler, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, M. Gordon, A. Scaife, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, T. Ose, R. Koster, B. Kirtman, A. Kumar, W. A. Müller, A. Pirani, T. Stockdale, M. Rixen, T.i Yasuda, 2017: The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: providing open access to seasonal forecast ensembles from centers around the globe, Bull. Amec. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0209.1, (in press).
  • Ardilouze, C., L. Batté, F. Bunzel, D. Decremer, M. Déqué, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Douville, D. Fereday, V. Guemas, C. MacLachlan, W. A. Müller, C. Prodhomme. 2016: Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability, Clim. Dyn., 10.1007/s00382-017-3555-7.
  • Fischer, M., D. Domeisen, W.A. Müller and J. Baehr, 2017: Changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic meridional heat transport in a RCP 8.5 climate projection in MPI-ESM, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 129-146,, 2017.


  • Müller, V., H. Pohlmann, D. Matei, J. Marotzke, W. A. Müller, J. Baehr, 2016: Hindcast skill for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N within two MPI-ESM decadal climate prediction systems. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3482-z
  • Pohlmann, H., J. Kröger, R. J. Greatbatch, W. Müller, 2016: Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3486-8 (open access)
  • Pattatanús-Ábrahám, M., C. Kadow, S. Illing, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, W. Steinbrecht, 2016: Bias and drift of the mid-range decadal climate prediction system (MiKlip) validated by European raiosonde data. Met Zeitschrift
  • Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and  J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4
  • Boer, G. J., D. M . Smith, C. Cassou, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Danabasoglu, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Kimoto, G. A. Meehl, R. Msadek, W. A. Mueller, K. Taylor, and F. Zwiers (2016), The Decadal Climate Prediction Project, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-78
  • Marotzke, J., W. A. Müller, F. S. E. Vamborg, P. Becker, U. Cubasch, H. Feldmann, F. Kaspar, C. Kottmeier, C. Marini, I. Polkova, K. Prömmel, H. W. Rust, D. Stammer, U. Ulbrich, C. Kadow, A. Köhl, J. Kröger, T. Kruschke, J. G. Pinto, H. Pohlmann, M. Reyers, M Schröder, F. Sienz, C. Timmreck, M. Ziese, 2016: MiKlip - a National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00184.1
  • Li, H., T. Ilyina, W. A. Müller and F. Sienz, 2016: Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake. Nature Communications. doi:10.1038/ncomms11076
  • Butler, A., O. Alves , A. Arribas, M.Athanassiadou, J.Baehr, N. Calvo, A.Charlton-Perez , M. Déqué, D.I.V. Domeisen , H . Hendon, Y. Imada, M. Ishii, M. Iza , A. Karpechko, A. Kumar, C. MacLachlan, W. J. Merryfield , W. A. Müller, A. O’Neill, A. A. Scaife , J. Scinocca, M. Sigmond, T. N. Stockdale, and T. Yasuda 2016:The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: Do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter? QJRMS 142: 1413-1427.
  • Bunzel, F., D. Notz, J. Baehr, W. A. Müller, and K. Fröhlich (2016), Observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice concentration significantly affects seasonal climate forecasts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2015GL066928.


  • Kadow, C., S. Illing, O. Kunst, H. W. Rust, H. Pohlmann, W. A. Müller and U. Cubasch, 2015: Evaluation of forecasts by accuracy and spread in the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. Met. Zeitschrift. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0639  (open access)
  • Kruschke, T., H. W. Rust, C. Kadow, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, 2015: Probabilistic evaluation of decadal prediction skill regarding Northern Hemisphere winter storms. Met. Zeitschrift. doi:10.1127/metz/2015/0641  (open access)
  • Sienz, F., W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, 2015: Ensemble size impact on the decadal predictive skill assessment. Met. Zeitschrift.  (open access)
  • Domeisen, D., Butler, A., Fröhlich, K., Bittner, M., Mueller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2015). Seasonal predictability over Europe arising from El Niño and stratospheric variability in the MPI-ESM seasonal prediction system. Journal of Climate, 28, 256-271. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1.
  • Baehr, J., K. Fröhlich, M. Botzet, D. I. V. Domeisen, L. Kornblueh, D. Notz, R. Piontek, H. Pohlmann, S. Tietsche, W. A. Müller, 2015: The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn., 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7


  • Müller W. A., D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann,G. P. Compo, and J. Marotzke (2014): A 20th-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s, Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5
  • Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith, 2014: Decadal climate prediction for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 2100-2107.
  • Scaife, A. A., M. Athanassiadou, M. Andrews, A. Arribas, M. Baldwin, N. Dunstone, J. Knight, C. MacLachlan, E. Manzini, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Smith., T. Stockdale, and A. Williams, 2014: Predictability of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and its Northern Winter Teleconnection on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 1752–1758.
  • Bellucci, A., R. Haarsma, S. Gualdi, P. J. Athanasiadis, M. Caian, C. Cassou, E. Fernandez, A. Germe, J. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, W. Müller, H. Pohlmann, D. Salas y Melia, E. Sanchez, D. Smith, L. Terray, K. Wyser, S. Yang, 2014: An assessment of a multi-model ensemble of decadal climate predictions. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2164-y


  • Pohlmann, H., W. A. Müller, K. Kulkarni, M. Kameswarrao, D. Matei, F. S. E. Vamborg, C. Kadow, S. Illing, and J. Marotzke, 2013: Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, pp. 5798-5802.
  • Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Guemas, E. Hawkins, W. Hazeleger, L. Hermanson, C. K. Ho, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, J. Lean, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, A. Rosati, B. Wouters, and K. Wyser, 2013: Real-time multi-model decadal predictions. Climate Dynamics, 41, pp. 2875-2888.
  • Zanchettin D., O. Bothe, W. A. Müller, J. Bader, and J.H. Jungclaus (2013) Different flavors of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0
  • Menary, M. B., C. D. Roberts, M. D. Palmer, P. R. Halloran, L. Jackson, R. A. Wood, W. A. Mueller, D. Matei, and S.-K. Lee (2013), Mechanisms of aerosol-forced AMOC variability in a state of the art climate model,J. Geophys. Res.Oceans,118, 2087–2096, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20178
  • Saeed, S., N. van Lipzig, W. A. Müller, F. Saeed and D. Zanchettin (2013), Influence of the Circumglobal Wave-train on European Summer Precipitation, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-013-1871-0.
  • Pohlmann, H., D. M. Smith, M. A. Balmaseda, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, P. Rogel, 2013: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Clim. Dyn., 41, 775-785. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
  • Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J. H., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W. A., Notz, D., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K., Stockhause, M., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., & Stevens, B. (2013). Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 572-597.


  • Müller, W. A., J. Baehr, H. Haak, J. H. Jungclaus, J. Kröger, D. Matei, D. Notz, H. Pohlmann, J.-S. von Storch, and J. Marotzke, 2012: Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L22707, doi:10.1029/2012GL053326.
  • Manzini, E., C. Cagnazzo, P. G. Fogli, A. Bellucci, and W. A.Müller (2012), Stratosphere-troposphere coupling at inter-decadal time scales: Implications for the North Atlantic Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L05801, doi:10.1029/2011GL050771.
  • Kröger, J. and W. Müller and J.-S. von Storch, 2012, Impact of different ocean reanalyses on decadal climate prediction. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1310-7.
  • Matei, D., H. Pohlmann, J. H. Jungclaus, W. A. Müller, H. Haak, and J. Marotzke (2012), Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00633.1
  • Matei, D., J. Baehr, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, W. A. Müller, and J. Marotzke (2012), Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N, Science, 335, 76–79, doi:10.1126/science.1210299


  • Saeed, S., W. A. Müller, S. Hagemann, D. Jacob, M. Mujumdar, and R. Krishnan (2011), Precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low andassociated teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L08702, doi:10.1029/2011GL046984.


  • Saeed. S., W. A. Muller, S. Hagemann, D. Jacob (2010), Circumglobal wave train and summer monsoon over northwestern India and Pakistan; the explicit role of the surface heat low, Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0888-x
  • Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller, M. Latif (2008): NAO and Predictability. PROMET.
  • Müller, W. A., C. Frankignoul and N. Chouaib (2008): Observed Decadal Tropical Pacific - North Atlantic Teleconnections. Geophys. Res. Let., 35, L24810, doi:10.1029/2008GL035901
  • Müller, W. A. and E. Roeckner (2008): ENSO Teleconnections in Projections of Future Climate in ECHAM5/MPIOM. Clim. Dyn., 31, 533-549.
  • Müller, W. A. and E. Roeckner (2006): ENSO Impact on Mid-latitude Circulation Patterns in Future Climate Projections. Geophys. Res. Let. , 33,  5, DOI L05711 10.1029/2005GL025032, 2006
  • Schwierz, C. , C. Appenzeller, H. C. Davies,. M.A. Liniger, W. A. Müller, T. F. Stocker and M. Yoshimori (2006): Approaches and Challenges by seasonal-to-decadal climate variability. Clim. Change, 79, 31-63.
  • Müller, W. A., C. Appenzeller and C. Schär (2005): Probabilistic Seasonal Prediction of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation and its Impact on Near Surface Temperature, Clim. Dyn., 24, 213-226.
  • Müller, W. A.  C. Appenzeller, F. Doblas-Reyes and M. A. Liniger (2005): A Debiased Ranked Probability Skill Score to Evaluate Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts with Small Ensemble Sizes. J. Clim, 1513-1523.
  • Müller, W. A. (2004): Analysis and Prediction of the European Winter Climate. in Veröffentlichung der MeteoSchweiz No. 69, pp101.
  • Müller, W. A., R. Blender and K. Fraedrich (2002): Low-frequency variability in idealized GCM experiments with circumpolar and localized storm tracks. Non. Proc. Geophys., 9, 1-13

Student Supervision

Ongoing PhD:

  • Laura Suarez-Gutierrez
  • Nele Neddermann (Supervisor: Johanna Baehr, IFM Uni Hamburg)
  • Leonard Borchart (Supervisor: Johanna Baehr, IFM Uni Hamburg)

Past PhD:

    Curriculum Vitae

    • since 2012 Research Group Leader of “Decadal Climate Prediction (MiKlip)" at Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology, Department "The Ocean in the Earth System"
    • since 2009 Scientist, Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology, Department "The Ocean in the Earth System"
    • 2005-2009 Scientist, Max-Planck Institute f. Meteorology, Department "The Atmosphere in the Earth System"
    • 2004         PostDoc, MeteoSwiss, Zürich
    • 2001-2004 PhD, ETH Zürich and MeteoSwiss, Zürich
    • 1993-2000 Study of Meteorology, University of Hamburg

    Past Projects


            National Center of Competences and Research in Climate (Swiss National Science Foundations)


            Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (EU FP6)


            Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impact (EU FP7)


            Understanding the Dynamics of the Coupled Climate System (EU FP7)


            Intgerated Climate System Analysis and Prediction